Behold the power of social media...

I enjoy a good stat as much as the next guy, maybe more - they can help close a deal, pique an interest and gather supporters.  I remember a quote often attributed to Mark Twain (turns out it wasn't him, but I like his delivery) that said 'there are three kind of lies; lies, damn lies and statistics...', and in no other industry does that phrase apply more than in RE and assessing a RE market.  But what I like more is how they can be explored in the world of social media.

I have two examples today - The Redfin Episode and the Case of Arizona Sales Stats

In the Redfin Episode, we find that Redfin, who promotes an on-line sales model that challenges the RE industry norm, posted an article that claimed their methodology was superior to the industry norm.  This created a firestorm of commentary in the RE blogging world and eventually, Redfin posted not one response, but two. First, the data posed was statistically insignificant and second, the MLS data they used was off a bit.  This was back in February, so the news is old news now, but it does serve my purpose of portraying the power of stats.

In the Case of the Arizona Sales Stats, you get to pick your source to best suit your need.  The Phoenix Real Estate Guy / Jay & Francy Thompson, cited a Trulia report that highlights the Phoenix Market (the highlight starts on page 3) and it is chock full of stats on our beloved city.  BTW, Jay does a neat analysis of the sheer number of real estate professionals in Arizona in his blog; he figured out how to use the PivotTable in Excel (maybe he'll show me...)

Trulia cites the two hottest  neighborhoods as North and Central Phoenix and the two slowest are West Phoenix and an area called 'Desert Hills'; their map has it in the Northwest part if the Valley.  Prices in Oct - Dec are at $230K and that is a positive 6.4% change from the year prior.  Trulia data is drawn from their own website activity.

The ASU's Realty Studies Center has their own stats - they state that prices were stable at $260K in January 2007, down from $265K the year prior.  Their forecast is for a 'good year' for Phoenix real estate, but that is hinging on a stable international economic and political environment - hmm, might happen I suppose...

Zillow came up with this data, already put in a nice spreadsheet - $254,413 as the average price, down .53% from the previous year

Lastly, the Maricopa County Assessors Office has posted a preliminary report of Full Cash Value with an average single-family dwelling of $202,500 for 2007 and a county parcel count of 949,307.

I'll not suggest I am anything like a guru on valuations or even stats, but I can share and observation that data can be collected and shared to shape an opinion any way you like... at least that's what used to be the norm before social media came on the scene.

In the 'new world order' of social media, you have to be transparent in your data, data gathering and how / what you share - people can in a second check your facts and in a nano-second, verify your statements from a variety of source; just like I did on this data.

The conclusion - use stats, use them to best support your case, but be very transparent about how you do. 

In these examples, several are purported authorities; I often come into conversations where one person is using one set of data and the other using someone elses data.  Is either one of them wrong, or is on emis informed and if so, who?

I suppose allowing yourself to be called on the stats you use and be open to new data when it comes up is the best policy.  Who knew  stats could be so fun...

Comments

[Jay Thompson]

Nice blog you have here Steven. Thanks for stopping by mine (and thanks for the linkage...)

As for pivot tables, if I could explain it, I would. I have to re-teach myself every single time I do them. But they are great for crunching down big spreadsheets.